Anthropic aims for 2026 IPO, could revive AI sector confidence

Anthropic may be the only big‑name tech firm left to announce a U.S. IPO in 2026 after filing a confidential S‑1 with the Securities and Exchange Commission in early June, according to data from prediction‑market platform Kalshi. Traders on Kalshi now give the AI startup a 75 percent chance of an official debut this year, the highest odds among the 23 companies still being traded on the site.

Investors entered the year expecting a wave of mega‑cap listings, with names such as SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic on watchlists. That optimism faded when OpenAI said it would not go public in 2026, citing AI‑safety concerns, and when other private giants postponed their plans. The Kalabi market defines an “official announcement” as the SEC deeming an S‑1 effective, an IPO price being set, or a ticker being assigned. As the year progressed, odds for several high‑profile firms slipped sharply. Fintech company Plaid fell from a 50 percent chance in January to just 10 percent now. Payroll platform Deel’s odds dropped from 50‑50 in February to 3 percent, and cloud‑AI firm Databricks is down to a 1 percent chance after being above 50 percent earlier in the year.

Anthropic’s own numbers have added uncertainty. The company disclosed third‑quarter revenue of $16.8 billion, a slowdown in quarter‑over‑quarter growth that surprised analysts. Investors are questioning whether the firm can sustain the rapid expansion the market expects, especially as broader IPO activity has declined. Renaissance Capital reports that the total number of U.S. IPOs priced in 2026 is down 33 percent from 2025, even though proceeds have risen thanks to a few high‑profile debuts like SpaceX’s June offering.

If Anthropic does go public, it could become the flagship AI listing of the year, giving investors a rare avenue to back a large‑scale AI player. A successful debut would also signal renewed confidence in the market’s appetite for AI‑driven growth, potentially encouraging other private AI firms to revisit their IPO timelines. Conversely, another delay would deepen doubts about the sector’s readiness for public markets and could keep capital flowing from private rounds for longer.