China's economy grows 4.5% as AI exports surge in Q3

China’s economy grew 4.5% in the third quarter, the fastest pace in three years, as a surge in artificial‑intelligence‑related exports lifted overall output, official data showed on Monday. The rise came after a slowdown that saw growth dip to its lowest level since 2020, and it placed the country at the bottom of its 4.5‑5% annual target.

The rebound reflects a shift in the drivers of China’s growth. Domestic consumption has stayed weak, with property investment falling more than 20% in the first nine months of the year. A prolonged housing slump, low wage growth and high youth unemployment have kept shoppers cautious. At the same time, global demand for chips, batteries and other components that power AI data centres has surged, giving exporters a new source of momentum.

High‑tech goods exports jumped 14.3% in the quarter, while output of batteries and industrial robots rose by more than 29%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The trade surplus is on track to exceed the record $1.2 trillion set last year. Oxford Economics researcher Sheana Yue said the surge in manufacturing and high‑tech shipments helped offset weak investment at home, but warned that the property downturn shows no sign of ending. Moody’s analyst Dave Chia added that China’s reliance on a single external engine – export demand – remains a risk.

Beijing has responded with a package of support measures, including lower interest rates for certain firms and subsidies for home buyers, in an effort to revive domestic spending. Analysts say the next few months will test whether those policies can broaden the growth base beyond AI‑driven exports. If consumer confidence does not improve, the economy could remain vulnerable to trade tensions and geopolitical pressures that continue to cloud the outlook.