G20 finance chiefs highlight debt, AI, trade imbalances as key risks

Finance ministers and central bank governors from the G20 gathered in Bangkok last week and identified debt, artificial intelligence and trade imbalances as the three biggest risks to the global economy, while China slipped down the list of top concerns. The meeting, the first in Asia since 2018, brought together more than 30 finance chiefs to debate what could spark the next financial crisis.

The Bangkok gathering marked a return to Asia after the last summit in Bali, Indonesia, in 2018 and the previous Thai host in 1991, before the Asian financial crisis. Organisers said the shift reflects the growing importance of Asian markets in the world economy. Experts warned that a surge in AI‑related borrowing is pushing up debt levels in the Global North, and that a slowdown in AI productivity could amplify those pressures. Kevin Gallagher, director of Boston University’s Global Development Policy Center, told reporters in Beijing that the IMF, the Federal Reserve and the People’s Bank of China will need to coordinate closely, or risk worsening the situation.

The International Monetary Fund was upbeat about countries positioned to benefit from the AI supply chain, such as South Korea, Japan and China, but warned that nations lagging behind could see widening gaps. The IMF also flagged the United States’ federal debt, now above $40 trillion, as a structural risk. Treasury adviser David Zervos dismissed the Fund’s warning, noting past forecasting errors. Chinese central bank governor Pan Gongsheng urged stronger IMF monitoring of fiscal spillovers from advanced economies, urging deficit‑running countries to tighten policy while surplus nations boost consumption and investment. At the G20 finance ministers’ meeting, Chinese and U.S. officials sat apart, underscoring the lack of coordination.

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine also resurfaced, with Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov attending in person for the second time this year after earlier criticism forced him out of a group photo in the United States. Observers say the next steps will hinge on whether the IMF, the Fed and the People’s Bank of China can align policies on debt and AI investment. Failure to do so could deepen global imbalances and raise the odds of a financial shock, making the Bangkok talks a bellwether for future coordination among the world’s most powerful economies.