Ashley Hinson trails Josh Turek by eight points in Iowa poll

Rep. Ashley Hinson, the Republican congresswoman from Iowa’s 1st district, is trailing Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek by eight points in a new Marist poll released Tuesday, with 50 % of likely voters saying they would back Turek and 42 % saying they would support Hinson. The survey, which interviewed 1,200 registered Iowa voters between June 25 and 28, has a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.

The race is the first open Senate contest in Iowa since 2022, after Sen. Joni Ernst announced she will seek a second term. Hinson, who has served in the House since 2021, entered the Senate race in March, hoping to translate her small‑district success into a statewide win. Turek, a former educator and current state representative from the Des Moines suburbs, launched his campaign in April, positioning himself as a moderate alternative to the GOP’s hard‑right tilt. Iowa has voted Republican in every Senate election since 1996, but demographic shifts in the Des Moines metro area and a strong Democratic turnout in the 2022 midterms have made the contest more competitive.

The poll shows Turek leading on several key issues, including health‑care affordability and rural broadband expansion. Hinson’s campaign says the numbers are “within the normal margin of error” and points to a fundraising advantage, having raised more than $5 million compared with Turek’s $3 million as of early July. Both candidates have been touring the state, with Turek focusing on union‑friendly towns and Hinson targeting agricultural communities concerned about trade policy. National Democratic and Republican committees have earmarked money for the race, reflecting its potential impact on the Senate balance of power.

The next milestone will be the August primary, where Hinson faces a small field of Republican challengers and Turek must clear a crowded Democratic slate. After the primaries, the November ballot will likely see both candidates intensify advertising and voter‑contact efforts. If Turek maintains his lead, he could become the first Democrat to win an Iowa Senate seat in three decades, a development that would tighten the Senate’s partisan split and shape the legislative agenda for the next two years.