Peggy Flanagan wins Minnesota Senate seat, defeating Michele Tafoya by 55%

Minnesota lieutenant governor Peggy Flanagan is projected to win the state’s open Senate seat with roughly 55 percent of the vote, beating Republican challenger Michele Tafoya, according to Decision Desk HQ’s final tally on election night. The race fills the vacancy left by retiring Democrat Sen. Tina Smith, who announced she would not seek a fourth term. Flanagan’s victory would keep the seat in Democratic hands and preserve the party’s narrow majority in the U.S. Senate.

The contest mattered because Minnesota is one of the few swing states that could tip the Senate balance. Democrats hold 51 seats, Republicans 49, and losing Smith’s seat would have forced a power shift. Smith’s decision to step down opened the field for a high‑profile race that attracted national attention and spending. Flanagan, a former state representative and the first Native American woman to serve as lieutenant governor, entered the race with a record of progressive policies on health care, education and tribal sovereignty. Her candidacy was seen as a chance to broaden Democratic appeal among urban voters and rural communities alike.

Tafoya, a former NFL broadcaster with no prior elected experience, ran as a moderate Republican emphasizing fiscal responsibility and public safety. The campaign was tightly contested, with both sides pouring millions into advertising and ground operations. Polls in the weeks before the election showed Flanagan with a modest lead, and her fundraising advantage grew after she secured endorsements from key labor unions and environmental groups. After the polls closed, early returns from Minneapolis and the Twin Cities showed a decisive margin for Flanagan, while Tafoya performed better in the western suburbs and northern rural counties. The Decision Desk model, which weighs precinct‑level data and historical turnout, gave Flanagan a near‑certain win as the final numbers came in.

If the projection holds, Flanagan will be sworn in on Jan. 3, 2025, becoming the first Native American woman in the Senate. She is expected to seek assignments on the Committee on Indian Affairs and the Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, where she can advance her policy priorities. Her win also reinforces Democratic control of the Senate, allowing the party to pursue its agenda on climate action, voting rights and health care reform without fearing a loss of the majority. The result signals that Democrats can still win in competitive Midwestern states, even as the national political landscape remains deeply divided.