California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard yields negligible carbon savings: study.
MIT researchers have found that California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard program, which incentivizes dairy farmers to convert cow manure into natural gas, likely has negligible carbon savings due to ener
California's largest dairy farms have been collecting millions of dollars in state subsidies to turn cow manure into natural gas, a scheme that's been
Read Full Story at MIT Tech Review →Why This Matters
California’s push to slash greenhouse gas emissions by incentivizing dairy farmers to convert manure into natural gas risks creating a false sense of progress. If the state’s flagship climate program is built on flawed accounting, it could set a dangerous precedent for other jurisdictions betting big on biogas as a clean energy solution.
Background Context
The Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), launched in 2007, was one of the first major markets to monetize carbon reductions by rewarding clean fuel producers. Dairy-derived biomethane became a poster child for the program, with California spending hundreds of millions in subsidies to develop manure-to-gas infrastructure. Critics have long warned that the state’s emission calculations ignore methane leaks and indirect biofuel impacts.
What Happens Next
Regulators may face pressure to tighten oversight of the LCFS program, potentially adjusting carbon intensity scores for biomethane. Meanwhile, dairy operators relying on these incentives could see funding streams dry up, forcing a reevaluation of their climate strategies. The fight over biogas credits may also spill into broader debates over California’s 2030 climate targets.
Bigger Picture
This dispute reflects a growing backlash against bioenergy as a climate panacea, with studies increasingly showing that landfill gas and agricultural waste projects often overstate their benefits. As governments worldwide double down on renewable fuels, California’s manure math could become a cautionary tale about the risks of relying on accounting loopholes instead of real emissions cuts.
