NFL and midterm elections set up prediction markets for a critical fall season

Prediction markets that rode politics and sports to new heights the past two years are betting on their convergence this autumn to drive even more adoption.

In 2024, event contract exchanges entered the mainstream with trades tied to the presidential election that year. Then, in September 2025, the start of the NFL season a year ago marked the beginning of a surge in prediction market trading volume that has yet to slow down.

Prediction markets began another NFL season on Wednesday night , when the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks dueled it out in a rematch of the 2026 Super Bowl. Labor Day also marked what political observers always consider the start of the midterm election campaign season .

This year, prediction markets enter the fall bigger than they've ever been, with daily notional trading volume now consistently in the billions , two dominant incumbents and a host of smaller exchanges chasing them to take some share of the market. And now the two events that separately brought prediction markets mainstream, are happening together over just a few months.

"You have a bit of a supercycle occurring right now within the prediction markets," said Robinhood's vice president and general manager for futures and prediction markets, JB Mackenzie.

Other events are in the wings this season, too, with traders showing greater interest in economic contracts linked to where a hard-to-read Federal Reserve may take interest rates next week, and Major League Baseball playoffs in full swing in October.

Prediction platforms have rushed to prepare for the fall's events. That will continue so long as the markets continue to get the majority of their volume from sports offerings, said Seni Thomas, CEO at EDGE Markets , a financial technology company working in sports betting and prediction markets.

This season could prove crucial, especially for newer platforms. "This NFL cycle is the real key, make or break" for many newer companies, Thomas said.