Can Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces take control of el-Obeid?
The RSF wants to seize the strategic southern city from the Sudanese military. For weeks, Sudan’s strategic city of el-Obeid has been targeted by intense attacks from the paramilitary Rapid Support Fo
The RSF wants to seize the strategic southern city from the Sudanese military. For weeks, Sudan’s strategic city of el-Obeid has been targeted by inte
Read Full Story at Al Jazeera →Why This Matters
The battle for el-Obeid represents more than a territorial contest—it could redraw Sudan’s military balance and determine whether the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) consolidate control over the country’s agricultural heartland. A RSF victory would not only sever the Sudanese Armed Forces’ (SAF) supply lines to Darfur but also position the paramilitary as the dominant force in a post-conflict power structure, potentially sidelining the military’s political ambitions.
Background Context
El-Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan, has long been a crossroads of Sudan’s internal conflicts, serving as a logistical hub for both the SAF and rebel groups during the Darfur wars. The city’s strategic value lies in its position near the Nuba Mountains and its role in controlling trade routes linking Khartoum to Darfur, making it a prize both militaries covet. Historically, the RSF’s predecessor, the Janjaweed, operated in the region with impunity, a legacy that complicates any future civilian administration’s ability to govern.
What Happens Next
If the RSF secures el-Obeid, the SAF may struggle to hold other key cities in central Sudan, forcing a defensive posture that could accelerate negotiations—or prolong the war. The city’s fall would also test whether regional mediators can broker a ceasefire before the RSF gains irreversible momentum. Meanwhile, the fate of civilians in el-Obeid hangs in the balance, with reports already indicating mass displacement and humanitarian access restrictions.
Bigger Picture
This conflict underscores a broader pattern in Sudan’s civil wars: the militarization of governance and the erosion of state institutions under the weight of paramilitary factions. The RSF’s offensive reflects a regional shift where non-state armed groups are increasingly dictating the terms of political transitions, a trend seen from Libya to the Sahel. Should el-Obeid fall, it may signal the beginning of a new phase where the RSF, rather than the SAF, shapes Sudan’s post-war order.
